tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post1110115197509864629..comments2024-03-29T02:03:49.151-04:00Comments on History Unfolding: Another blast from the past - July 2010David Kaiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-4478392174016916642019-06-29T03:46:00.612-04:002019-06-29T03:46:00.612-04:00https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/...https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/boomers-are-blame-aging-america/592336/?utm_source=pocket-newtab. Not as comment but this is fitting for your research area.Energyflowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14476915209268786507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-29087533162447092292019-06-25T10:20:39.227-04:002019-06-25T10:20:39.227-04:00Very good post way back when.
If millennials are ...Very good post way back when.<br /><br />If millennials are from 1981-1996, the average millennial will be about 30 in 2020 which usually signals a major change on the immediate horizon. We have had an economic expansion for 10 years now and are due for a recession. The yield curve has inverted and there are early signs of a recession (http://shorturl.at/cDISX). Everything's set up for the Trump presidency to be a failed one in 2020 to be followed by a gray champion (Biden?) in 2021. There's no reason why we cannot unite behind climate change as the underlying agenda of the next era. To get there however, we have to fight for it (across the western world).<br /><br />I'm no historian but I don't understand why no one (that I'm aware of) has combined the insights of Skowronek (the failed presidencies of Quincy Adams, Buchanan, Hoover, Carter and Trump(?) signaling the end of eras) with the Fourth Turning hypothesis (High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis). If one does this, you can tell a straightforward story of Hamiltonian infrastructure building with a transition to Jeffersonian expansion across three eras of American history: Revolutionary War to 1860 with the failed presidency of Quincy Adams marking a transition; Civil War to 1945 with a transition from Reconstruction to the roaring 20s; WWII to 2020 with the failed presidency of Carter marking a transition. Based on this model, Trump signals the end of the corporate Reagan era (which began in 1981) which will be supplanted by the climate change era (2021 - XXXX). To get there, we'll probably need a financial world war in the 2020s which looks to me to be on the cards at present.NoOnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08685249095572192084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-47789405671001095532019-06-23T00:51:04.066-04:002019-06-23T00:51:04.066-04:00Now a Democratic Administration has very little to...<i>Now a Democratic Administration has very little to offer to the millions of new unemployed. They may not become enthusiastic Republicans, but they will not be enthusiastic Democrats, either--even though the younger voters among them are closer to the Democrats on social issues.</i><br /><br />The free market liberation ideology of the 80's is still not challenged to any substantially degree by Democrat leadership. It would seem that the modern Left rationalizes the destruction of the middle class and private sector unions by pointing out "progress" on social issues. While the mainstream Right remains hostile to New Deal era econ. policies for obvious reasons, the mainstream modern Left has a difficult time reviving the econ. ideology of the 1930's-70's, because that would lead to too much cross-contamination w/social conservatism. <br /><br />Disturbingly, reasonable talk about foreign policy is also being made difficult by much of the modern Left refusing to "cede ground" to anyone who is the least bit Right-wing on social issues. Left and moderate speakers who use Tucker Carlson's Fox News program as a platform to speak out against dangerous and wasteful wars have been attacked as "traitors" to the Left cause, and "normalizers" of everyone on the Right spectrum, who is said to be a bigot and an anachronism who wants to go back to the bad old days of the early 20th century. We are not going to reach meaningful bi-partisan solutions with this extreme zeal displayed by one side or the other. "Pure" Leftists don't want to get dirtied by any kind of alignment or compromise with social conservatives or even social moderates.<br /><br />The General Social Survey says that all generations (even Silents) have become more supportive of gays and drug legalization. But I would imagine that Millennials and Gen Z are accustomed to the expectation that the modern West is supposed to be socially liberal, so younger generations aren't as shy about expressing their views. That being said, a major economic or foreign policy crisis would cause social issues to fade into the background, much as how taking care of America in the wake of the Depression and Pearl Harbor put the 1920's era culture war on the shelf for a while; "culture wars" would collect dust from the 1930's-early 1970's, then would take on greater and greater importance from the late 70's-90's.Ferylhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01336057631877941839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-58122920357246193722019-06-23T00:50:43.174-04:002019-06-23T00:50:43.174-04:00All this has enormous consequences for the Millenn...<i>All this has enormous consequences for the Millennial generation (born 1982-2002?), whom Strauss and Howe expected to be the new GIs.</i><br /><br />Many outlets now are putting placing the birth range as being from about 1981-1996. According to Jon Haidt, whose done excellent stuff about today's youth and campus culture, those born after about 1995 (generally called "Gen Z") have been affected (quite negatively so) by post-2000 trends in parenting styles and overall cultural and tech. developments. Gen Z grew up with omnipresent cell-phones, and intense social pressure to conform to the high expectations placed on them by Boomer and Gen X run institutions (by contrast, Gen X and Millennials didn't face as much scrutiny from Silent and Boomer run institutions). Gen Z has perhaps the least amount of autonomy and emotional freedom of any generation ever, because parents of children born after 1995 faced intense pressure to assist and defend their kids. Gen Z thus has seen delayed milestones of social and emotional development, because they've had adults doing so much on their behalf, and always are nervous that their kids could be "scarred" if they do too much at a young age. In addition to the tight parenting, there's also the increasing political tensions in America, which have also spilled over into other aspects of life. Gen Z, in stark contrast to older generations, has spent it's entire young life watching people face opprobrium for expressing the "wrong" views in public (and even in private; private phone conversations, e-mails, texts etc. have all been used to damage people's reputations and get them fired from jobs).<br /><br /><i>Perhaps we were wrong; perhaps the crisis did begin with 9/11. Certainly George W. Bush took advantage of the shift in the national mood to move forward on a great many fronts, and his work has proven lasting.</i><br /><br />Personally, it would seem that the Patriot Act would've been hard to fathom in the 80's and 90. 9/11 became an opportunity to re-shape our policies and our trajectory, which Gen X and Millennials welcomed in concept, if not ultimately in practice (these generations did not create or ask for the Reagan or Clinton era).In the 2000's, Silents and Boomers were more likely to express reluctance about moving on from the 90's era of political peace and culture war.Ferylhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01336057631877941839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-7368447324533571862019-06-23T00:50:13.662-04:002019-06-23T00:50:13.662-04:00This was a very good post back then.
Some though...This was a very good post back then. <br /><br />Some thought Obama would initiate something like the age of Aquarius!<br /><br />Those same people had thought the same thing about the fall of the Soviet Union.<br /><br />Millenarianism, the long long cycle, has always been around.<br /><br />Re S & H, the 20 year ones, rather than trying to apply something like that to history, one might even look at something like Please Understand Me, and skip the historical explanation aspect of personality analysis altogether. <br /><br />Or rather, focus on the role of prominent individuals, biography as history, a la Jonathan Steinberg, etc., which has become a fashionable trend in history in recent decades...It also misses the synoptic view I prefer, however.<br /><br />I am not a special advocate for their (Please Understand Me) system either, but at least it stays away from history, and clings more to an analysis, flawed though it too is, of strictly psychology types per se.<br /><br />All the bestBozonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18078858723231122013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-83645530398884575452019-06-22T13:03:27.470-04:002019-06-22T13:03:27.470-04:00So a 160 year cycle if we take it in positive chan...So a 160 year cycle if we take it in positive change vs negative change.1780 ca. would be high point morally and 1860 low point. 1940-5 2nd high point and around now is 2nd low point. 1620 and 1700 crises would be other curvature high and low points previous and 2100 would be a positive point on curve similar to Roosevelt and Washington and first settlers around 1620. So simplistically speaking America could either become in this cycle a true global hegemon like ghenghis khan through nukes, a defeated aggressor like Hitler, Japan or with luck simply become isolationist with Eurasia controlled by 'revisionist' powers. Orwell's model would be incorrect. I wonder if Western hemisphere would be absorbed into USA as latinization increases over the borders demographically and from the north to south economically creating a single cultural area. Perhaps real American renewal would occur through latino catholicism and native indio cults and black African religions. Like negro spirituals mixed with classical to invent regtime then jazz and rock and the disco and rap whole new religious and cultural forms could be created. Presupposing perhaps due to peak oil, destruction of persian gulf fields in a conflict a return to more local, hand built economies without planes, autos mechanization self reliant strong personlities cod reemerge. Avstudy today stated that people have eaten 650 kilocalries too much since 50 yers. 10% globally would be by 2030 obese, now 1/3 in USA. Brain size is reduced, intelligence and diabetes increases. So automation has been a negative heathwise when taken past 1940 levels. 8bviously once anglosaxon power centers decline the Eurasians will squabble. It is the common enemy that has brought China and Russia, Turkey and Iran together. The more sociopathic the evil empire behaves with Pompeo and Bolton as goering, goebbels and co. the more holy the sanitized dictatorship of the mullahs and chinese communists appear historically. Energyflowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14476915209268786507noreply@blogger.com