tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post3520327688596003271..comments2024-03-29T02:03:49.151-04:00Comments on History Unfolding: By way of explanation, and a flashbackDavid Kaiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-35429184319542726932014-09-24T13:05:18.609-04:002014-09-24T13:05:18.609-04:00http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internati...http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/yale-endowment-posts-20-return-besting-rival-harvard/articleshow/43354441.cms<br /><br />5% underperformance on $30bn is $2,000,000,000 dollars. Thank you Class of 1969! Way to protect the interests of the institution! Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08021836492414191188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-20739989708578300592014-09-21T17:06:53.491-04:002014-09-21T17:06:53.491-04:00I've had similar thoughts. After becoming fami...I've had similar thoughts. After becoming familiar with Strauss and Howe's theory about five years ago, I started to wonder if things are just too disorganized this time around to rebuild a unified society. They mention it didn't happen in the Civil War era because the crisis came too soon and the conflict was too bitter. So I thought maybe this time is similar, like successful Fourth Turnings skip a generation in the American experience. <br /><br />I noticed also that during that last failure, in the late nineteenth century, there was immense technological growth. That was the Second Industrial Revolution, which concentrated power in corporations rather than in the state. <br /><br />This time around, with the electronics revolution of the past few decades, we might be seeing a similar technological push against the state and in favor of (semi-) private enterprise. <br /><br />In my most Hegelian moments, I wonder if this would be toward the good, as if delayed gratification for the next four generations or so will lead to even bigger prosperity in the twenty-first century. Perhaps that delayed gratification of the late-nineteenth century paid off in the unrivaled prosperity of the late 40s, 50s, and 60s. <br /><br />I also wonder if a continued focus on private business and technological growth will, in the long term, push us closer to a kind of communist synthesis due to automation replacing the need for most human workers. At that point, there would be three options available to resolve the imbalance in society: keep the poor masses permanently oppressed, eliminate the masses, or institute ethical socialism. Of course people wouldn't want to die, so they'd push for the third option, hence the global revolution. At that point the world economy and culture would be more unified than now due to so many more decades of globalization. <br /><br />But those are my optimistic moments. Maybe all the same could be accomplished with a national renewal instead of continued empowerment of private capital. Or maybe the continued empowerment of private capital won't replace the workforce with machines and so cause the above-mentioned pressures, but will instead just lead to a new de facto slavery for the masses. <br /><br />It's a lot to think about, and generally I am not optimistic about the future in my lifetime.Silenushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09452302901453344305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-73504330753326618512014-09-21T08:28:59.368-04:002014-09-21T08:28:59.368-04:00Good Morning:
The text is amazingly prescient. I...Good Morning:<br /><br />The text is amazingly prescient. I am not only glad you did so, I hope you re-run this particular post every year. I am serious. Pick a nice time for you. Maybe Christmas. We all need to be reminded of the common sense evaluation of the events of our lifetime.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08975858647978546069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-56823750434625819882014-09-21T06:07:19.426-04:002014-09-21T06:07:19.426-04:00From the course of events one sees similarities to...From the course of events one sees similarities to those gilded era days with massive technological change and expansion of rich into massive new geographical areas in both eras and huge population growth and expansion of middle class in those new areas. So as long as growth was happening, interrupted by recessions, everyone was happy and focused on new technological toys invented annually in both eras.<br /><br />As however the relative uselessness of and exhaustion with technology and its abuses and destructive potentials and as the growth potential and creativity of the two eras petered out so that what the rich skimmed off left nothing over for the population and only speculation on housing, stocks kept people believing at the tail end,1920s, 2000s. <br /><br />Really there is little difference between now and 80 years ago. If Sadaam were Hitler and Putin also were Hitler USA could save the world as in a Hollywood film from Emmerich. It is not so however. We can't script a "Happy End" to repeat the heroics of our grandparents or parents. It was a simpler world back then. Now Russia and China and Middle Eastern people's have learned how to play by the same tricks as the "West". Industrially, financially, hi-tech, Propaganda, controlled democracy, trade flows, all can bypass the post war alliance. The New World Order tripled the participants in the modern era, enabling a parallel power bloc, BRICS, SCO, alternative reserve currency, parallel IMF, trade over silk Road and oil and gas by Peking bypassing US Navy control of oceans. <br /><br />So if West is in a tail spin due to financial over extension and lacking increasingly in democratic legitimacy it cannot lash out abroad. Hitlers rise and Japan's colonial war was due to trying to emulate UK, USA in so many ways. Since those two countries were isolated geographically they could be defeated as energy, trade , finances not connected. Now Russia, China, India, Near East connected amd all advantages of West in practically all senses have been balanced out. Western value system and results in terms of modern technological progress have equivalents abroad. Wort of VA<br />u es and trade, USD, etc. is superfluous. Jealousy and desire of "American Dream" is over. <br /><br />USA has to regenerate from within. The world has copied West to survive and is now successful. The pupil has surpassed the master who was good and had lessons to give but has grown old and Ill.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com