tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post6784409930384602903..comments2024-03-19T11:28:58.168-04:00Comments on History Unfolding: Ten years afterDavid Kaiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-70541337275141161642011-09-15T17:19:04.975-04:002011-09-15T17:19:04.975-04:00Dr. Kaiser:
the name is "AL QAEDA". Pl...Dr. Kaiser:<br /><br /> the name is "AL QAEDA". Please check it here:<br /><br />Al-Qaeda (Arabic: القاعدة, al-qāʿidah, Arabic: [æl<br />ˈqɑːʕɪdɐ], English: /ælˈkaɪdə/ al-ky-də, translation: <br />"The Base" and alternatively spelled al-Qaida and <br />sometimes al-Qa'ida) is a global Sunni Islamist <br />militant group founded by Osama bin Laden <br />sometime between August 1988[11] and late 1989.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-QaedaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-69281711304032840842011-09-14T15:08:04.088-04:002011-09-14T15:08:04.088-04:00David,
I always enjoy your posts and appreciate y...David, <br />I always enjoy your posts and appreciate your perspective. I wanted to remind you that it's always darkest before the dawn (even if it is a cliche). <br /><br />I agree with you here:<br />"This is, in my opinion, the third great crisis of American national life, after the Civil War and the Great Depression and Second World War." <br /><br />I don't completely agree with you here though: "It is ending like the Civil War, but lacking one positive accomplishment on the scale of the abolition of slavery."<br /><br />The Great Depression through World War II was a long crisis. It's also a long way to the Great War in the 2020s spoken of by Toynbee or Strauss and Howe, or that moment of ekpryrosis when we jump track and seem to cross over into a new era. I hate to say it but it will be pretty much downhill from here until we (hopefully) find ourselves on top again, like a good model of time would be a moebius strip in some scheme dreamt up by Escher. <br /><br />You might be interested in the following, David, which touches on the dating of Strauss and Howe cycles. I would be interested to hear what you think:<br />http://mysticalsea.wordpress.com/2011/08/20/if-you-were-born-between-1976-and-1988-you-may-be-a-revolutionary/<br /><br />Also I have to say this statement is a little broad: <br />The children of the losers in the last national crisis, and the great-grandchildren of the losers in the one before that, had more to prove." Some great grandchildren of winners in the first war were the losers of the next of course. Things don't always shake out in exactly the same way when the world turns upside down. <br /><br />"Younger generations, including some yet born, will have to chance to revive the dreams of the Enlightenment--if they choose to do so." <br /><br />Or the Reformation! I thought you might be interested in the idea of the "internet reformation" developed by Anthony Wile at the Daily Bell which I first read about here: http://www.thedailybell.com/2880/Anthony-Wile-Doug-Casey-on-the-Continuance-of-the-Greater-Depression-and-the-Brighter-Prospects-for-GoldMystikelhttp://www.mysticalsea.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-35870248748612646332011-09-13T16:53:35.979-04:002011-09-13T16:53:35.979-04:00I agree with JR. I too believe 9/11 would not hav...I agree with JR. I too believe 9/11 would not have occured because Mr. Gore would have been listening to Richard Clarke. He may not have known exactly what was going to happen, but he warned the Bush administration that there was much "chatter" going on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-33956829249653071822011-09-11T19:46:03.480-04:002011-09-11T19:46:03.480-04:00It is an unprovable assumption that all those vote...It is an unprovable assumption that all those votes for Pat Buchanan were really meant for Al Gore. Buchanan was an outspoken opponent of unlimited immigration from Spanish-speaking countries like Cuba, and the senior citizens of Florida felt swamped by the "Hispanic Tide." Since they could not speak out in public for fear of being labeled "bigots" they did the next best thing and voted in large numbers for Pat Buchanan. Nobody EVER proved that those votes were "mistakes"!Robert Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-61002426487227197482011-09-11T15:33:31.208-04:002011-09-11T15:33:31.208-04:00To JR:
It is possible that a Gore Administrat...To JR:<br /><br /> It is possible that a Gore Administration would have done better, but frankly, I doubt it. It is extremely difficult to anticipate an unprecedented event of that magnitude. That was part of Bin Laden's brilliance: to make it so huge, just like the Japanese in 1941. Richard Clarke never claimed he had information that would have enabled us to stop the attack. But. . . we will never know.David Kaiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-4704955991766095122011-09-11T13:18:43.571-04:002011-09-11T13:18:43.571-04:00Leaving Florida for another alternative history sc...Leaving Florida for another alternative history scenario: I actually think the 9/11 attacks would have been prevented had Gore been president, because his administration would have been paying attention. Just as the Millenium attacker was caught at the border: he made a mistake, and people were watching. The 9/11 attackers made plenty of errors but were not caught because no-one at the highest levels was trying. I am sure that Richard Clarke's warnings would have been listened to (had the hypothetical Gore adminstration needed reminding, which I don't think they would have), and as a result the conspirators' errors would have resulted in detection of the plot.JRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-32308716581159530312011-09-11T11:28:53.792-04:002011-09-11T11:28:53.792-04:00Re the matter of a statewide recount, FL required ...Re the matter of a statewide recount, FL required the petitioner to submit a request before the canvassing board in each of the state's 67 counties -- thus Gore was unable to make a simple single request before the sec'y of state. This fact complicated Gore's decision making as it also would have required much more legal manpower to do all the work quickly within the narrow window for recount requests.<br /><br />His team -- led by cautious types like campaign chair Bill Daley and recount chair Warren Christopher -- seemed overly concerned about looking like they were trolling for votes with a request for many or all counties to be recounted, and also wanted to avoid losing momentum with challenges that could turn out to lose them votes here and there or in the case where the board would refuse their request (as legally it had the right to do). Gore's team actually thought they would win the PR battle with their minimal request but they failed to appreciate how the Bush campaign and the hostile MSM would turn it against them.<br /><br />Sort of reminds me of Obama -- trying to avoid the bold move which could be portrayed as too politically self serving and politically partisan, the decision is made to go completely in the other direction in the hopes of winning the statesmanship award, only to be received with scorn and derision from their opponents and great disappointment from their supporters as the approach fails. <br />Dems have produced quite a few tepid nonfighters like this in recent times, always worried about what the grown up Villagers will say and never as concerned about standing strong on principle.Brodienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-88463340759913741322011-09-11T10:16:01.154-04:002011-09-11T10:16:01.154-04:00Professor
Great short essay.
(I don't know ...Professor<br /><br />Great short essay. <br /><br />(I don't know enough about the voting details of the Bush v Gore controversy to make any comment.)<br /><br />I am very much looking forward to railroad comments to come, <br /><br />and any references to the history of railroad development you might care to drop, along the way.<br /><br />Reading Allison's account of pre 1776 colonial America, I wonder if there was ever a time when 'Americans' cared very much about civic virtue, other than frustrated, or mainly rhetorical, occasional exclamations. <br /><br />The United States, until after the Civil War was usually spoken about, apparently, (according to Allison) in the plural rather than in the singular, after all.<br /><br />All the best,<br />GMBozonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18078858723231122013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-53212335312593502762011-09-11T09:27:55.357-04:002011-09-11T09:27:55.357-04:00It looks like I was wrong about those ten minutes,...It looks like I was wrong about those ten minutes, yes. There are, however, two issues here.<br /><br /> 1. Was everyone in Florida who wanted to allowed to vote, or properly encouraged to vote? You are claiming that significant numbers of west Floridians were discouraged. I doubt that very much. (And remember that not everyone in that part of the state was voting for Bush by any means.) Ten minutes just isn't enough to reach many people. But in any case, if you want to open up that argument, then you also have to consider the Palm Beach butterfly ballot, which cost Gore, by the best estimates, at least 1000 votes, and the purge of the rolls that cost him a good many as well. However, that kind of argument can't possibly settle anything, and shouldn't, because we have to go by the votes that were cast. Which leads me to point:<br /><br />2. The only proper thing to do was to count every vote in the state as carefully as possible. Civic virtue had fallen so low, on both sides, that NO ONE tried to insist on that. (Gore mentioned it as an option but wasn't even smart enough to make it his preferred option.) But if you believed in democracy, that is what you should have done. US states have routinely done full recounts when elections are that close for decades. Texas law called for such recounts. And the data we have shows that, had such a recount been done, Gore would have won and become President.<br /><br />I never questioned whether Bush was actually President. He was, just as Rutherford B. Hayes was, because he received a majority of the electoral votes when they were counted in the Congress. But had the votes been properly counted he would have lost. It's a terrible judgment on all of us that they were not.David Kaiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-8661928280919177422011-09-10T23:23:50.149-04:002011-09-10T23:23:50.149-04:00Your assertion that call for Gore was note made
BE...Your assertion that call for Gore was note made<br />BEFORE the polls were closed is FACTUALLY <br />INCORRECT Dr. Kaiser!<br /><br />Read below directly from CBS News President<br />Andrew Heyward's response to Chairman of the<br />Commerce Committee Rep. Billy Tauzin.<br /><br />"The networks’ <b>mistaken early calls </b>Election Night<br />that Al Gore — and later George W. Bush — had <br />won Florida were due in part to flawed exit polls <br />in the Tampa area and a “significant computer <br />error” in Volusia County’s election agency, CBS’ <br />news chief told Congress.<br /><br />CBS News President Andrew Heyward said in a <br />letter to Rep. Billy Tauzin, chairman of the House<br />Commerce Committee’s telecommunications panel,<br />that his network’s initial call for Gore at <b>7:50 p.m.<br />ET </b>on Nov. 7 was based on Voter News Service <br />exit polls and actual vote data, interpreted through<br />tested statistical models."<br /><br />http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=122438<br />&page=1Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-56010414640162211672011-09-10T21:33:28.727-04:002011-09-10T21:33:28.727-04:00What I posted was direct from a CNN "mea culp...What I posted was direct from a CNN "mea culpa" afterwards. NBC called Florida for Gore at 7:50 PM without realizing part of Florida (a republican part) was on central time and that they were creating a temptation for the many people who were waiting in line to go home. This generated a cascade of calls from other news organizations with only ABC holding back until after 8 PM. It all came from the Voter News Service which was later disbanded because of the mess they created on election night 2000. If you think this did not happen, then you do not remember the night as well as you think you do.James50noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-4976783647449699912011-09-10T18:55:40.129-04:002011-09-10T18:55:40.129-04:00I remember that night well. You are claiming netwo...I remember that night well. You are claiming networks called Florida for Al Gore at 8:00 PM. I am certain it was later than that. In any case, calling at 7:50 would not keep anyone away from the polls who wasn't on the way. And more important than that, in any case, the point is to count the votes that were cast, accurately. That was not done until it was too late.David Kaiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-35467093729268215742011-09-10T17:35:41.258-04:002011-09-10T17:35:41.258-04:00Or perhaps this:
"With regard to some states...Or perhaps this:<br /><br />"With regard to some states with more than one time zone and different poll<br />closing times, CNN and others did not always wait until all polls were closed in those<br />states before calling a winner. One such state was Florida, where CNN projected Gore as<br />the winner 10 minutes before polls closed in the state’s western panhandle, which<br />contains 5 per cent of the population and where, as in most polling places, voters on line<br />at poll closing time may still cast their ballots. Viewers were not told that those polls<br />still were open. Viewers were told the Florida polls closed at 7 p.m., when in fact the<br />polls in the panhandle closed an hour later at 7 p.m. Central Time."<br />http://archives.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/02/cnn.report/cnn.pdfJames50noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-66103640665005080712011-09-10T12:25:09.802-04:002011-09-10T12:25:09.802-04:00p.s. I remember the call for Gore. It was after t...p.s. I remember the call for Gore. It was after the polls closed. The networks haven't made calls before the polls closed for decades.David Kaiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-40915125068104429992011-09-10T12:16:18.158-04:002011-09-10T12:16:18.158-04:00No, James, you stopped reading the article when it...No, James, you stopped reading the article when it suited you. The study also found that a complete recount of the entire state would have given it to Gore.David Kaiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-15430331509650030482011-09-10T10:59:26.442-04:002011-09-10T10:59:26.442-04:00David, your wiki link to the Bush/Gore Florida rec...David, your wiki link to the Bush/Gore Florida recount does not say what you said it says.<br /><br />"The media recount study found that under the system of limited recounts in selected counties as was requested by the Gore campaign, the only way that Gore would have won was by using counting methods that were never requested by any party, including "overvotes" — ballots containing more than one vote for an office."<br /><br />Unless you want to use pure conjecture about voter intent on the butterfly ballot, Bush wins every time.<br /><br />I also think your memory is faulty about election night reporting. The state was called first for Gore even before the polls in western Florida were closed. There is anecdotal evidence that this call suppressed turnout in this heavily Republican area. When Bush heard this projection, his team went into overdrive to deny it and later the networks backed off.It was relatively late in the evening before anyone called it for Bush.James50noreply@blogger.com