tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post1570829332477569606..comments2024-03-19T11:28:58.168-04:00Comments on History Unfolding: Should governments help each other?David Kaiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05020082243968071584noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-25872597260569037592013-12-22T07:10:09.121-05:002013-12-22T07:10:09.121-05:00(a bit more)
So all blocs(except muslims except t...(a bit more)<br /><br />So all blocs(except muslims except through Al Quaeda attempts similar to Marxism/socialism in 19th century for proletariat) are becoming more homogeneous within and closer to one another through trade while trying to keep their own bloc identity(based on an understanding of their basic culture).<br /><br />The worst problem is that the muslims are so diverse generally and exist in most other areas and that the Japanese and Koreans don't "belong" to the American orbit long term. Perhaps the Chinese will become democratic and form an EU type bloc with them and ASEAN after a war with the Nato forcing a capitulation as after WWII. How else to get reform in China is hard to see unless it takes generations of gradualism to get it done. A similar occurrence could take place in Russia and without Putin probably would have, i.e. disintegration and impositon of US style rules and trade.<br /><br />Maybe USA won't remain as global policeman if they lose oil supplies internally and from Middle East. Then things could go back to historical norms with Europeans, Russians , Muslims and East Asians solving their own problems on the basis of their own cultural rules and regionally (no more global conflagrations). This would have to presume a lack of modern tech. which could go as quickly as it came over 50-100 years decline of fossil fuel resources. Due to distance problems America would then be insignificant globally. In traditional shipbuilding, canons, etc. the Chinese, Indians Russians could always hold their own in the future against energy poor Euro-Americans I would presume.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03288487311129532045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-48925836358381455932013-12-22T07:09:32.248-05:002013-12-22T07:09:32.248-05:00I had to write an essay once in the early 90s abou...I had to write an essay once in the early 90s about the international changes on a continental basis due to creation of trade blocs like EU, Nafta, ASEAN. What Russia is doing is trying to form a competitive trade bloc against the EU with its former soviet republics. The EU is negotiating with the US for a free trade zone. If the Chinese nationalist tendencies were not so strong then the saber rattling there would have given way to siimilar tendencies in the whole East Asian area not just South East Asia. <br /><br />Since religious decline in Europe and language education in schools, along with mass tourism abroad and TV bringing cultural awareness beyond steretoypes people have a feeling of being Europeans, not Germans, French, British as much as used to be the case. In the USA and Mexico and Canada similar is occuring.<br /><br />Russia is a multinational state with a large percent of muslims for many centuries so that a broad-based Russian-orthodox nationalism is unlikely to catch on, although in certain cases skinhead surges can be seen among young people due to mass illegal immigration of caucasians and central asians to do menial labour in the big cities. Similar is seen in Europe against Turkish, Arabs, etc. <br /><br />The Chinese have a great diversity just as the Indian subcontinent does within its own cultural area. However the Japanese and Koreans and Taiwanese are in the American "orbit". The USA has another cultural focus. East Asia before colonial times was in China's trade/military sphere. As long as USA remains strong there and the Chinese independent a long-term peace will be endangered. <br /><br />Russian borders were endangered for hundreds of years from Poland, Lithuania, Sweden, then Prussia, France, Habsburgs and the united Germany. Western Ukraine was always a problem area betweeen East and West therefore as I am learning reading a Kruschev biography (by Taubmann from Harvard, perhaps an acquaintance of yours). The English were also occassionally trying to invade Russia from the north or the south or interfere generally(in civil war for example).<br /><br />So in toto we see blocs like muslims, Russians orthodox, Western Europe moderate christians, American sphere(more conservative religious). Europe is in Brussels with a tendency of Berlin towards the East(Eastern Europe as well as Turkley), Paris towards North Africa and Britain towards North America. The three major European powers then balance the interests out informally to form a flowing balance between too much influence for either of the two former superpowers or a total degradation of the Muslim South. The Russians on their side keep a delicate power balance between the Chinese and Europeans/Nato, supplying both with gas/oil and/or military technology and allowing US troop/supply movements across a corridor to Afghanistan to pacify Taliban(easier than doing it themselves) and maintain stability in central Asia/Middle East post 9/11. US / Russia direct argument is of course Syria where Russia's only naval base abroad is and how exactly to deal with Iran. <br /><br />The Americans have great interests in Chinese and Japanese trade (much more than Europe) and great influence in Europe and Latin America. <br /><br />The Muslims have no real center, Saudia/Gulf states against Teheran is clear but then there are others as the Turkic states of Turkey and across central Asia and then North African Arabs and the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis and lastly South East Asian mulsims as maybe 7 different zones of influence covering from Europe to Asia and even in black Africa. Defining a muslim in the world is like defining latinos on the US census. <br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03288487311129532045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-21918006928398744362013-12-21T18:11:41.683-05:002013-12-21T18:11:41.683-05:00Professor
Many thanks for this essay.
I will take...Professor<br />Many thanks for this essay.<br /><br />I will take nationalism and civilizationalism, with all their warts, over globalism.<br /><br />Unfortunately, our weak nationalist system fed comfortably into globalism eventually.<br /><br />Here's a link, I hope, to macMillan's recent article.<br /><br />http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/essays/rhyme_of_history/images/landing_final.jpg<br /><br />Aunt Katiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01266914664888937116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-51099828081172055722013-12-21T06:58:14.227-05:002013-12-21T06:58:14.227-05:00Just to state the subtle, the Millennial Generatio...Just to state the subtle, the Millennial Generation standard of living will be about the lowest in the past eighty years. <br /><br />We have both figuratively and literally returned to the Gilded Age.<br /><br />I do think that the most likely outcome is a return to the 20th Century, as the response from those movements was due to the poor functioning of Liberal Democracies. <br /><br />And to be frank, I see very little similarity between New Deal America (Democratic Socialist) to Gilded America, (Liberal and Neoliberal) <br /><br />And to be even more frank, it didn't matter if the state was Capitalist or Communist, the paradigm conquered both Superpowers anyway.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11460215708996644977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8746692.post-7938426029506371232013-12-20T23:36:16.814-05:002013-12-20T23:36:16.814-05:00David
"Secretary of State Kerry's recogn...David<br /><br />"Secretary of State Kerry's recognition that a deal with Syria over chemical weapons made more sense than air strikes was a welcome exception to this trend.." (snip)<br /><br />Uh, that's not my recollection at all. Kerry made a throwaway remark about Syria abandoning these, then scuttled its chances, saying 'its never going to happen'.<br /><br />If it wasn't for Vladimir Putin stepping up, it never WOULD have happened.<br /><br />Putin: the best thing that's happened to US whistleblowers this year, and a feckless US Sec'y of State.CrocodileChuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10762442097044797842noreply@blogger.com