Wednesday, November 08, 2006

The Democrats have won the Senate

It is remarkable how inefficient the contemporary media are; last night and again this morning, any intelligent person with a computer can stay ahead of them. Last night, while Talent was leading McCaskill in Missouri, I checked the exit poll data. It had a gender breakdown. Doing the math (which took about 2 minutes) it was clear that the exit polls showed McCaskill the winner by about three points, and thus, unless the poll had been seriously botched, she was going to win. She did win by three points. This morning the same is true: any reasonable person must conclude that the Democrats have won both Montana and Virginia, which the media refuses to recognize. Here is the data.

The one county that has not reported in Montana, Meagher County, has a population of less than 2000 total (not voters) and Tester is ahead by 1700 votes. Webb is now ahead by 8000 in Virginia and I am quite sure there has never been a recount that changed a margin of 8000 votes. The only uncounted votes in Virginia are a few from Fairfax City, which went for Webb; Isle of Wight County, which went for Allen; and Loudon County, which Webb won narrowly. It is most unlikely that they would even total 8000 and Webb should get about half of them aganyway. All this data is available on the CNN web site. These are not Florida-2000 style margins. Virginia will have its recount, and Montana may, but the Democrats have won 51 Senate seats.

The House results, while gratifying, did not quite live up to my expectations because the Republicans pulled out about half a dozen extraordinarily close races, including two in Connecticut. But I was delighted that my last-minute prediction about Jim Ryun in Kansas came true.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Your posts are excellent --I found you in Kissinger's peanuts about a month ago. Ever since, I've been broadcasting (in the medieval sense)links to your blog. Because I am a retired history professor, and I know a superb source when I see it.

Your observation on 11/8 about the backwardness of the media deserves a cheer. Considered yourself huzzah-ed.

I watched the returns Tuesday at a gathering of savvy friends -- recently retired State Department folk, World Bank, an occasional columnist for the WaPo -- and none of them really understood what thin gruel they were watching from the CBS and NBC compared to what was available on the blogs. Being with loving friends is one thing but when you have to sit through Katie Couric's yammerings. Oy. I'd forgotten what exquisite torture it is to watch almost anything on the MSM. (Does Turner Classic Movies count as MSM)?

What folks at the 11/7 dinner party were laptops and a list of the key sites that updated and analyzed. As you know, at least a dozen bloggers were on top of everything election and yesterday.

Congratulations on your blog -- excellent and rewarding it is.