So much to keep up on. I saw a video that explained that Russia felt justified due to US invasions without UN backing. Others suggest that color revolutions are sovereignty violations. At any rate Americans have a long history of being very unreliable wrt treaties when they see them as disadvantageous. Putin is getting older and must feel a sense of urgency seeing as Ukraine was becoming slowly part of NATO unofficially. These people speak most part the same language and have a common culture. Perhaps one could imagine largely English speaking Canada becoming part of a foreign enemy military alliance or Austria and the US or Germany feeling a need to react. At any rate overtures were ignored for discussions. During the cold war treaties for arms control were made. Such technical discussions are needed. Russia is treated as part of the global community OTOH but then endless sanctions and military assertiveness is made. This grey area is very dangerous and can lead to serious miscalculations. There is a sort of cultural understanding in the West about US cultural, economic and military dominance. Russia, China, India try to join by transforming economically, technologically but when this is perceived as too successful then blockades are put in the way, rules of the game are changed. Japan currency collapsed in 1990 as they seemed to dominate America. A similar fight is emerging economically with China now. With Russia it was always military and diplomatic influence. Periodically as under Czar Peter or the Soviets modernizations were pursued. However one can only go so far without losing one's own soul. We have often discussed here generational theory. If this is a reset of East- West relations till century's end, a new iron curtain, then it would seem to qualify, like 9/11 in the sphere of MENA. I do not expect a drawn out conflict.
Aloha Dr. K, We last corresponded in December, 2015, under your heading of "America's Fourth Great National Crisis". I din't see the catalyst close at hand yet. You demurred. We may now stand at the edge of that chasm.
I was uncertain about the 2016 election. I ended with, "If they (the American voters) chose poorly? We'll have to wait and see."
Well, they did choose poorly. The split in the American public engineered by Trump and abetted by Putin raises the question whether that public will rally around President Biden's efforts, by means other than violence, to oppose Putin's war against Ukraine. If they don't, and the split persists, Putin may succeed in defeating Ukraine and then be tempted to engage a NATO country, with all the implications of NATO's Article 5.
Once again the question is, will they (Americans) choose poorly, again?
Professor Nyt has published some hypothetical Presidential speeches.
I wrote an intro which you kindly posted.
It would seem to be nice if our principles here were right for all men everywhere, as W said, or even just for us. The British, then American, colonists did not actually subscribe, as you note.
They gave short schrift to the Dutch, French, Indians; did not include negro slaves, as even Bobbitt admits.
The ideal of self determination itself has countless problems, derives from founding ideals of dissent and rebellion from the rhetoric and wars of religion.
It is in some ways the opposite of the rule of law, and smacks of conflicts of laws, or even conflicts of religions, more than "law's" rule.
Professor I watched Stephen Kotkin a little tonight, Top1000funds.com, and Fridman interview in part. He is kind of very well respected dunce.
He didn't think Putin would invade, back circa February 22. I knew he would invade. I may be a dunce, just not a well respected one. Kotkin has been in a huge company of ignoramuses in the West. He even admits, counteerintuitively, that the West has probably a lot more to lose than he does by his invading, and by Western sanctions efforts in response.
Hello.
The same goes for things like China and Taiwan, or South China Sea.
Fiona's remarks have all but admitted that they have a strategic alliance.
4 comments:
So much to keep up on. I saw a video that explained that Russia felt justified due to US invasions without UN backing. Others suggest that color revolutions are sovereignty violations. At any rate Americans have a long history of being very unreliable wrt treaties when they see them as disadvantageous. Putin is getting older and must feel a sense of urgency seeing as Ukraine was becoming slowly part of NATO unofficially. These people speak most part the same language and have a common culture. Perhaps one could imagine largely English speaking Canada becoming part of a foreign enemy military alliance or Austria and the US or Germany feeling a need to react. At any rate overtures were ignored for discussions. During the cold war treaties for arms control were made. Such technical discussions are needed. Russia is treated as part of the global community OTOH but then endless sanctions and military assertiveness is made. This grey area is very dangerous and can lead to serious miscalculations. There is a sort of cultural understanding in the West about US cultural, economic and military dominance. Russia, China, India try to join by transforming economically, technologically but when this is perceived as too successful then blockades are put in the way, rules of the game are changed. Japan currency collapsed in 1990 as they seemed to dominate America. A similar fight is emerging economically with China now. With Russia it was always military and diplomatic influence. Periodically as under Czar Peter or the Soviets modernizations were pursued. However one can only go so far without losing one's own soul. We have often discussed here generational theory. If this is a reset of East- West relations till century's end, a new iron curtain, then it would seem to qualify, like 9/11 in the sphere of MENA. I do not expect a drawn out conflict.
Aloha Dr. K,
We last corresponded in December, 2015, under your heading of "America's Fourth Great National Crisis". I din't see the catalyst close at hand yet. You demurred. We may now stand at the edge of that chasm.
I was uncertain about the 2016 election. I ended with, "If they (the American voters) chose poorly? We'll have to wait and see."
Well, they did choose poorly. The split in the American public engineered by Trump and abetted by Putin raises the question whether that public will rally around President Biden's efforts, by means other than violence, to oppose Putin's war against Ukraine. If they don't, and the split persists, Putin may succeed in defeating Ukraine and then be tempted to engage a NATO country, with all the implications of NATO's Article 5.
Once again the question is, will they (Americans) choose poorly, again?
Ed Ciliberti
Professor
Nyt has published some hypothetical Presidential speeches.
I wrote an intro which you kindly posted.
It would seem to be nice if our principles here were right for all men everywhere, as W said, or even just for us.
The British, then American, colonists did not actually subscribe, as you note.
They gave short schrift to the Dutch, French, Indians; did not include negro slaves, as even Bobbitt admits.
The ideal of self determination itself has countless problems, derives from founding ideals of dissent and rebellion from the rhetoric and wars of religion.
It is in some ways the opposite of the rule of law, and smacks of conflicts of laws, or even conflicts of religions, more than "law's" rule.
All the best
Professor
I watched Stephen Kotkin a little tonight, Top1000funds.com, and Fridman interview in part.
He is kind of very well respected dunce.
He didn't think Putin would invade, back circa February 22.
I knew he would invade. I may be a dunce, just not a well respected one.
Kotkin has been in a huge company of ignoramuses in the West.
He even admits, counteerintuitively, that the West has probably a lot more to lose than he does by his invading, and by Western sanctions efforts in response.
Hello.
The same goes for things like China and Taiwan, or South China Sea.
Fiona's remarks have all but admitted that they have a strategic alliance.
In my judgment, a fool could see that, too.
All the best
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