Those of you who've been with me at least since November 2006 know that instant election results are a specialty here at historyunfolding. Although some votes remain to be counted, I'm going to comment on Iowa--because I'm delighted. The victory of Mike Huckabee and the very probable (at this point) victory of Barack Obama--and the bare probability of a third-place finish for Hillary Rodham Clinton--send an overwhelming message: the country is fed up with the establishment of both parties and is eager to say so. Turnout was very high, especially among the Democrats. We are, I venture to say, finally in the new era that Strauss and Howe predicted. The establishment is dead--r.i.p.
Obama is now five points ahead with about 80% of the precincts in. He has won. I am thrilled, and not just because he is my candidate--barely. Hillary will try to recoup in New Hampshire and South Carolina--but if she does, I suspect Edwards will pull out and endorse Obama (who may become more confrontational in his rhetoric) before Super Tuesday, leaving him in a very strong position.
We have the next ten months to find out what our great republic is still capable of. I can't wait to find out.
5 comments:
I've been saying for some time that the next set of candidates had better be or sound like populists if they hope to have a chance, considering the public mood for the past at least 2-5 years. So far it's at least partially happening. (Edwards has the stronger populist credentials but there are people who think they're only skin deep.)
And, speaking of populists, why is the media not recognizing the Oprah factor more? The demographic that turned the tide for Obama appears to be younger women- prime Oprah constituency.
If you're talking populist wins, you'd better look at one of the moving forces of popular culture in the US today...
Would you call Obama an Xer or a *Boomer?
I was in bed with the flu, but the news at 10:00 pm that Obama had won was enough of an injection of elation to make me wake up today feeling pretty good! Fingers crossed the wave continues!
The Obama victory is exciting, but it will take a lot more than ten months to see of what this country is made. Electing him would be just a start. What, then, will he and the country do to address the global crisis? The big step forward would be the removal of an ideologically-driven presidency, but even a more pragmatic one faces world problems of immense and unprecedented proportions. Obama puts a better face on the US for the world and his instincts (based on his own multicultural heritage) should be strong, but that's not enough to become the Gray Champion.
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