When will the show be cancelled?

 Even relatively apolitical Americans, I think, inevitably think of the president of the United States as a father.  In a sense this is true: any president has enormous responsibility for our well-being.  It can therefore be quite traumatic to see a profane, irresponsible, erratic man in the White House--someone who proudly announces from time to time that he can do anything and get away with it.  This last weekend was particularly difficult in this respect, but suddenly the crisis is over, and the denouement will, I suspect, help me cope a little more easily with the next two and half years of our national life.

Donald Trump actually told us all we need to know about his approach to foreign policy during his first term, in the crisis over North Korea's nuclear weapons program.  After some North Korean tests of missiles and potentially intercontinental ballistic missiles, he announced, "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before."  Then, after an unprecedented summit with Kim Jong-Un produced a meaningless commitment, he declared the crisis over.  Eventually he added that the two leaders had fallen in love.  The playbook, as my wife has put it, came straight from a reality show script:  identify a problem, issue a horrifying threat, and then announce, without evidence, that the adversary had given in.  Over the last week we have seen a new episode of this long-running show.

Lost in the drama of threatened escalation and sudden cease fire yesterday was a very important New York Times story on the origins of the attack on Iran. On February 11, it turns out, Benjamin Netanyahu gave a long presentation arguing for war on Iran in the Situation Room of the White House, backed via zoom by a team of Israeli officials. His audience included President Trump, the White House Chief of Staff, the Secretaries of State and Defense,  the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the CIA Director, and the president's personal envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.  It did not include the Vice President or the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who were skeptical about such  a war. None of the American officials present were pushing for war with Iran at that moment.  Netanyahu argued that war could bring down the Islamic regime, and even showed pictures of possible opposition successors, including Reza Pahlavi, the would-be successor to is father the Shah.  In subsequent discussions, no senior American official backed that prediction, but none of them actually opposed the war either.  It seems to be a fixed rule of the Trump Administration that no one but the president can actually suggest what should be done in a given situation, perhaps to protect them from coming out on the wrong side, or to protect the president from ignoring good advice.  Trump began the war apparently hoping for regime change, but immediately began muddying the waters by declaring that the conflict was over without any sign of it, or that the Israeli assassination of various Iranian leaders had already changed the regime.

The enemy, however, turned out to have a say in the matter.  Just a few hits on ships in the Persian Gulf by missiles or drones shut down most of the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.  I was reminded of a student of mine at the Naval War College, perhaps fifteen years ago, who had served on ships in that region. "They can close the strait any time," he said, "and there's nothing we can do about it."  I don't know if this is exactly what he had anticipated, but it turned out that the Iranians didn't have to put warships or even mines into the strait to shut down traffic.  This almost instantly created an economic crisis in some far-off lands, such as the Philippines, drove gas prices in the US to nearly $4 a gallon, and threatened a world-wide recession.  Iranian attacks on energy production across the Gulf made the situation even worse.  And it does seem that Iranian missile attacks on Israel and elsewhere were getting more effective, not less, and that allied stocks of anti-missile missiles were getting dangerously low.  The US meanwhile sent more ground troops to the region, threatening to seize Karg Island in the strait, the source of Iran's own oil exports--an extremely risky operation that would leave US forces in reach of Iranian firepower.

On Saturday, April 4, the president made the first of three historic posts:

"Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!"

The next day he followed up with this:

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

And then, yesterday morning (Tuesday), came this:

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!"

The world held its breath for about twelve hours, when we learned that the government of Pakistan had brokered a deal for a two-week cease-fire involving Iran, Israel, and the US.  This morning our president struck a different note:

"Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

I probably won't know for sure for some time, but I find it very difficult to believe that that agreement was actually negotiated during the day on Tuesday.  We know that Witkoff and Kushner had been negotiating for some time, and I strongly suspect that the outlines of the deal had been agreed to late last week before the flood of tweets began.  The downing of two American planes over Iran and the successful rescue mission may have delayed things as well.  Meanwhile, the three above tweets established a new narrative--that Trump's promise of drastic action had forced the Iranians to make peace.  We shall be hearing a lot more about that in weeks to come.

Turning to the reality of the situation, both sides apparently have submitted maximum peace programs, with the US demanding that Iran totally give up its nuclear program and its enriched uranium while Iran demands reparations for war damage and an end to sanctions.  Meanwhile, they do not even agree on what the truce means, with Iran arguing that it applies to Israeli action in Lebanon as well, while the Israeli government denies this. I suspect that the cease-fire will be extended indefinitely while both sides claim victory.  Vice President Vance, a leading administration skeptic about the war, now has to try to negotiate a real peace.  Certainly Iran, I think, has strengthened its international position by demonstrating how seriously it can harm the whole world economy.  I don't think that President Trump has raised his standing among the rest of the leaders of the world, and polls indicate that he has not impressed the American people, either.  I think he will be quick to threaten to resume the war, but very reluctant actually to do so.  It isn't easy to get a real sense of where the world and our place in it is going, because the president does such a remarkable job of keeping attention focused upon himself.  At that he has no peer.

I suggest that we all prepare for more episodes of the long-running drama, Donald Trump, Master of the Universe, Maker of all Peace.  Meanwhile I will close on a different note.  Joseph Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest of the war, writing, "I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."  For that he has been attacked for promoting an old "anti-Semitic trope" that Jews control the world.  It isn't clear that AIPAC and other pro-Israeli government American Jews directly pressured Trump to start this war during February, but the New York Times story absolutely confirms that Prime Minister Netanyahu did more than anyone else to talk Trump into undertaking it.  Truth, in my judgment, should be a legitimate defense against accusations of spreading anti-Semitic tropes.  Regarding Israel, Kent knew what he was talking about.